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LOCAL POLITICS
Illustration by Danny Wilson
By George Korda
Let’s Get Ready to Rumble!
In the quiet room-corner conversations among Republicans about possible future election match-
ups, there’s one discussion in particular that no one speaks about too loudly—and there is almost always a preface before the exchange: “Let’s keep this between us.”
The big question: Do you think Tim Burchett will run against John James “Jimmy” Duncan Jr. for Tennessee’s 2nd District congressional seat in the House of Representatives?
Let’s talk about it—out loud.
Why Tim Burchett Will Run Against Jimmy Duncan
Four words: Limited choices, potential opportunity.
Burchett was first elected to the Tennes- see House of Representatives in 1994 and then elected to the Tennessee State Senate in 1998, where he served until taking office in September 2010 as Knox County mayor. Re-elected as mayor in 2014, Burchett has up to four years to decide whether he’ll make a run for Duncan’s seat.
Are there other elected offices for which Burchett can run? He’s unlikely in the extreme to again seek a Tennessee General Assembly seat and its $20,203 paycheck (plus, of course, the $188 daily per diem). Nor would he run for Knoxville mayor in an increasingly Democratic city.
Jobs in the private sector that pay $167,687—Burchett’s county salary, plus benefits and perks—aren’t as plentiful as East Tennessee roadkill. The base congres- sional salary of $174,000 is undoubtedly tempting. In 2018, Burchett will just be 54, and barring a collapse in his likability or ability to speak fluent East Tennessee, he’ll continue to receive area-wide media cov-
erage and remain a popular conservative figure in a conservative area of a conserva- tive state.
By 2018, Jimmy Duncan will be 71, and it’ll be the 54th year a Duncan (begin- ning with Duncan’s father, John Sr.) has represented the 2nd District. An argument could be made that people will be ready for a change.
Burchett has run a no-tax increase, no-frills, no-nonsense mayoral adminis- tration. He is as hard to dislike as a park- ing pass and free tickets to a Vols football game. As the saying goes, he wears like an old shoe—and people like that he speaks his mind.
All things considered, what does Bur- chett have to lose?
Why Tim Burchett Won’t Run Against Jimmy Duncan
Jimmy Duncan never takes an elec- tion for granted.
Duncan was first elected to Congress in 1988—and in the subsequent 13 elections he has never won less than 70 percent of the general election vote.
Though Knox is the 2nd District’s largest county, the district also includes Blount, Claiborne, Grainger, Jefferson, and a portion of Campbell. Duncan is an ever-present figure in East Tennessee. One can be assured that Duncan recognizes Burchett is a potential threat—and, in
the coming years, Duncan will leave no voter or local official unschmoozed.
Duncan’s solid conservative credentials on the national stage will be amplified as he champions Republicans against Hillary Clin- ton (or whoever the Democrats ultimately nominate for president in 2016). Burchett won’t be able to run to the right of Duncan.
Does the 2014 campaign augur ominously for the Duncan’s subsequent campaigns? Against Republican challenger Jason Zach- ary, Duncan managed only 60 percent of the vote in the primary—but Duncan still won the general election with 74 percent.
The anti-incumbent fervor—against both Republicans and Democrats—of 2014 will surely dissipate by 2016—and one might believe that Duncan would stand in even better stead should a Democrat win the 2016 presidential election.
Experience counts. Duncan is vice chairman of the U.S. House of Representa- tives’ committee on transportation and infrastructure. He is also a member of other highway, transportation, and national security committees and subcommittees. In short: Duncan is positioned to bring home federal bacon to the 2nd District—in ways a freshman Burchett couldn’t equal.
When Duncan speaks to audiences he combines an “Aw, shucks” delivery with easy-to-understand observations about national government and the goals of his district’s citizens—and, indeed, what he does to meet those goals.
Duncan will want to leave office on his terms—and when he is ready, not when he is pushed.
Tim Burchett vs. Jimmy Duncan Jr.: Could it be East Tennessee’s Political Fight of the Century?
The general hope within the Republican establishment is that something hap-
pens so a choice doesn’t have to be made between the two.
Hopes privately expressed.
George Korda is a longtime news media political analyst and the president of Korda Communications, a public relations and communications consulting firm based in Knoxville.
56 CITYVIEWMAG.COM JULY AUGUST 2015