Tennessee: For Democrats, What’s Next?

Illustration by R. Daniel Proctor
0

The results of the election has this writer curious about the future of the Democratic Party in the Volunteer State

With a new-but-old presidential administration taking office, and Tennessee election winners beginning their new terms of office, the question is, will Democrats be able to overcome their now decades-long Volunteer State decline? 

Much of the political universe, nationally and locally, will continue to revolve around President Donald Trump. As an experiment, start a public affairs conversation with anyone on any subject, and then count the seconds until they invoke the name, “Trump.” It shouldn’t take long. Trump’s dominance of political thought and discussion is largely fueled by a national news media that post-election remains obsessed with his every move. Anticipate no change in Trump continuing to overwhelm the political firmament.

The Republican state legislative General Assembly supermajority is unchanged. In its election analysis, the Associated Press strained to put the best face on Democrats’ 2024 Tennessee outcome: “Tennessee’s Republican legislative supermajority will remain unchanged after Democrats failed to flip seats in a handful of competitive races, but the minority party didn’t give up any ground, either. Republicans will continue to hold 75 out of the 99 seats inside the House chamber, the same amount the GOP held before Tuesday. Over in the Senate, Republicans will have 27 members while Democrats will continue to have just six.”

The Democrats’ small ground they hold indeed didn’t shrink further, but it has been trending downward for a while. To illustrate the Democrats’ deterioration, in 1992 Democrats, historically Tennessee’s dominant party, held a 63-36 state House majority: today, Republicans have a 61-seat advantage. That doesn’t mean Republican Gov. Bill Lee, whose term ends in 2027, will get everything he wants; for example, even with Republicans’ huge majority, Lee hasn’t been able to obtain legislative approval for universal school vouchers.

Tennessee’s baseline Democratic vote is found in the Marsha Blackburn-Gloria Johnson race’s 34.8% of Tennesseans voting for Johnson; with or without a campaign, she’d have probably finished with about the same numbers. Johnson achieved her 15 minutes of fame by being one of the “Tennessee Three,” a trio of Democrat state representatives who last March protested for gun control on the House floor. It’s understandable why Johnson took the senate campaign plunge: she’d gotten news coverage that helped her raise some money (about $7.2 million, according to the Nashville Tennessean); she’d likely never get another chance; and she was running concurrently, and unopposed, for her state House seat.

Locally, the Republican party squashed Democratic hopes for adding gains to their minimal holdings. The Knoxville News Sentinel described Democratic misfortunes: “Knox County Democrats, riding high after chipping away at Republican leads over the years and flipping a county commission seat earlier this year, crashed back to reality as election results came in Nov. 5. Knox County is GOP country.” Democrats hoped new face Bryan Goldberg would unseat 18th District Republican State Rep. Elaine Davis. Over the years, the 18th has been a much-contested race, but Davis sailed to reelection with about 54% of the vote.

As mentioned, Trump’s presence, for good or ill, bestrides the political world like a colossus. He is, at present, driving Tennessee’s GOP bus: its near-term fortunes rise or fall with him. If the public believes him to be fulfilling broad promises of igniting the economy, making definitive steps to secure the border, and creating a path to eliminate unnecessary government spending, will this move on the national scene position Tennessee Republicans to gain even more power? Maybe. If he doesn’t, they’ll take a short-term hit. What appears to be certain on the national and local level brings to mind an oft used metaphorical definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. There’s a new, post-Trump day coming in January 2029 for Republicans and Democrats, and each side will spend the next four years working, and changing, to make it sunny on their side of the street. 

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.